Nitrification amplifies the decreasing trends of atmospheric oxygen and implies a larger land carbon uptake

[1] Atmospheric O-2 trend measurements are used to partition global oceanic and land biotic carbon sinks on a multiannual basis. The underlying principle is that a terrestrial uptake or release of CO₂ is accompanied by an opposite flux of O-2. The molar ratio of the CO₂ and O-2 terrestrial fluxes should be 1, if no other elements are considered. However, reactive nitrogen produced by human activities (e.g., fertilizers, N deposition) is also being incorporated into plant tissues. The various reaction pathways of the terrestrial nitrogen cycle cause fluxes of atmospheric O-2. Thus the cycles of nitrogen, carbon, and oxygen must be linked together. We report here on previously unconsidered anthropogenic nitrogen-related mechanisms which impact atmospheric O-2 trends and thus the derived global carbon sinks. In particular, we speculate that anthropogenic-driven changes are driving the global nitrogen cycle to a more oxidized state, primarily through nitrification, nitrate fertilizer industrial production, and combustion of fossil fuels and anthropogenic biomass burning. The sum of these nitrogen-related processes acts to additionally decrease atmospheric O-2 and slightly increase atmospheric CO₂. We have calculated that the effective land biotic O-2: CO₂ molar ratio ranges between 0.76 and 1.04 rather than 1.10 ( moles of O-2 produced per mole of CO₂ consumed) over the period 1993 - 2003, depending on which of four contrasting nitrogen oxidation and reduction pathway scenarios is used. Using the scenario in which we have most confidence, this implies a 0.23 PgC yr(-1) correction to the global land biotic and oceanic carbon sinks of most recently reported estimates over 1993 - 2003, with the land biotic sink becoming larger and the oceanic sink smaller. We have attributed large uncertainties of 100% to all nitrogen-related O-2 and CO₂ fluxes and this corresponds up to +/- 0.09 PgC yr(-1) increase in global carbon sink uncertainties. Thus accounting for anthropogenic nitrogen-related terrestrial fluxes of O-2 results in a 45% larger land biotic sink of 0.74 +/- 0.78 PgC yr(-1) and a slightly smaller oceanic sink of 2.01 +/- 0.66 PgC yr(-1) for the decade 1993 - 2003. [References: 38

Controls on winter ecosystem respiration in temperate and boreal ecosystems

Winter CO2 fluxes represent an important component of the annual carbon budget in northern ecosystems. Understanding winter respiration processes and their responses to climate change is also central to our ability to assess terrestrial carbon cycle and climate feedbacks in the future. However, the factors influencing the spatial and temporal patterns of winter ecosystem respiration (Reco) of northern ecosystems are poorly understood. For this reason, we analyzed eddy covariance flux data from 57 ecosystem sites ranging from ~35° N to ~70° N. Deciduous forests were characterized by the highest winter Reco rates (0.90 ± 0.39 g C m-2 d-1), when winter is defined as the period during which daily air temperature remains below 0 °C. By contrast, arctic wetlands had the lowest winter Reco rates (0.02 ± 0.02 g C m-2 d-1). Mixed forests, evergreen needle-leaved forests, grasslands, croplands and boreal wetlands were characterized by intermediate winter Reco rates (g C m-2 d-1) of 0.70(±0.33), 0.60(±0.38), 0.62(±0.43), 0.49(±0.22) and 0.27(±0.08), respectively. Our cross site analysis showed that winter air (Tair) and soil (Tsoil) temperature played a dominating role in determining the spatial patterns of winter Reco in both forest and managed ecosystems (grasslands and croplands). Besides temperature, the seasonal amplitude of the leaf area index (LAI), inferred from satellite observation, or growing season gross primary productivity, which we use here as a proxy for the amount of recent carbon available for Reco in the subsequent winter, played a marginal role in winter CO2 emissions from forest ecosystems. We found that winter Reco sensitivity to temperature variation across space (QS) was higher than the one over time (interannual, QT). This can be expected because QS not only accounts for climate gradients across sites but also for (positively correlated) the spatial variability of substrate quantity. Thus, if the models estimate future warming impacts on Reco based on QS rather than QT, this could overestimate the impact of temperature change

Modelling the role of fires in the terrestrial carbon balance by incorporating SPITFIRE into the global vegetation model ORCHIDEE - Part 2: Carbon emissions and the role of fires in the global carbon balance

Carbon dioxide emissions from wild and anthropogenic fires return the carbon absorbed by plants to the atmosphere, and decrease the sequestration of carbon by land ecosystems. Future climate warming will likely increase the frequency of fire-triggering drought, so that the future terrestrial carbon uptake will depend on how fires respond to altered climate variation. In this study, we modelled the role of fires in the global terrestrial carbon balance for 1901–2012, using the ORCHIDEE global vegetation model equipped with the SPITFIRE model. We conducted two simulations with and without the fire module being activated, using a static land cover. The simulated global fire carbon emissions for 1997–2009 are 2.1 Pg C yr−1, which is close to the 2.0 Pg C yr−1 as estimated by GFED3.1. The simulated land carbon uptake after accounting for emissions for 2003–2012 is 3.1 Pg C yr−1, which is within the uncertainty of the residual carbon sink estimation (2.8 ± 0.8 Pg C yr−1). Fires are found to reduce the terrestrial carbon uptake by 0.32 Pg C yr−1 over 1901–2012, or 20% of the total carbon sink in a world without fire. The fire-induced land sink reduction (SRfire) is significantly correlated with climate variability, with larger sink reduction occurring in warm and dry years, in particular during El Niño events. Our results suggest a "fire respiration partial compensation". During the 10 lowest SRfire years (SRfire = 0.17 Pg C yr−1), fires mainly compensate for the heterotrophic respiration that would occur in a world without fire. By contrast, during the 10 highest SRfire fire years (SRfire = 0.49 Pg C yr−1), fire emissions far exceed their respiration partial compensation and create a larger reduction in terrestrial carbon uptake. Our findings have important implications for the future role of fires in the terrestrial carbon balance, because the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to sequester carbon will be diminished by future climate change characterized by increased frequency of droughts and extreme El Niño events

Tropical forest restoration: Fast resilience of plant biomass contrasts with slow recovery of stable soil C stocks

Due to intensifying human disturbance, over half of the world's tropical forests are reforested or afforested secondary forests or plantations. Understanding the resilience of carbon (C) stocks in these forests, and estimating the extent to which they can provide equivalent carbon (C) sequestration and stabilization to the old growth forest they replace, is critical for the global C balance. In this study, we combined estimates of biomass C stocks with a detailed assessment of soil C pools in bare land, Eucalyptus plantation, secondary forest and natural old-growth forest after over 50 years of forest restoration in a degraded tropical region of South China. We used isotope studies, density fractionation and physical fractionation to determine the age and stability of soil C pools at different soil depths. After 52 years, the secondary forests had equivalent biomass C stocks to natural forest, whereas soil C stocks were still much higher in natural forest (97.42 t/ha) than in secondary forest (58.75 t/ha) or Eucalyptus plantation (38.99 t/ha) and lowest in bare land (19.9 t/ha). Analysis of δ13C values revealed that most of the C in the soil surface horizons in the secondary forest was new C, with a limited increase of more recalcitrant old C, and limited accumulation of C in deeper soil horizons. However, occlusion of C in microaggregates in the surface soil layer was similar across forested sites, which suggests that there is great potential for additional soil C sequestration and stabilization in the secondary forest and Eucalyptus plantation. Collectively, our results demonstrate that reforestation on degraded tropical land can restore biomass C and surface soil C stocks within a few decades, but much longer recovery times are needed to restore recalcitrant C pools and C stocks at depth. Repeated harvesting and disturbance in rotation plantations had a substantial negative impact on the recovery of soil C stocks. We suggest that current calculations of soil C in secondary tropical forests (e.g. IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories) could overestimate soil C sequestration and stabilization levels in secondary forests and plantations

Mortality as a key driver of the spatial distribution of aboveground biomass in Amazonian forest: Results from a dynamic vegetation model

International audienceDynamic Vegetation Models (DVMs) simulate energy, water and carbon fluxes between the ecosystem and the atmosphere, between the vegetation and the soil, and between plant organs. They also estimate the potential biomass of a forest in equilibrium having grown under a given climate and atmospheric CO2 level. In this study, we evaluate the Above Ground Woody Biomass (AGWB) and the above ground woody Net Primary Productivity (NPPAGW) simulated by the DVM ORCHIDEE across Amazonian forests, by comparing the simulation results to a large set of ground measurements (220 sites for biomass, 104 sites for NPPAGW). We found that the NPPAGW is on average overestimated by 63%. We also found that the fraction of biomass that is lost through mortality is 85% too high. These model biases nearly compensate each other to give an average simulated AGWB close to the ground measurement average. Nevertheless, the simulated AGWB spatial distribution differs significantly from the observations. Then, we analyse the discrepancies in biomass with regards to discrepancies in NPPAGW and those in the rate of mortality. When we correct for the error in NPPAGW, the errors on the spatial variations in AGWB are exacerbated, showing clearly that a large part of the misrepresentation of biomass comes from a wrong modelling of mortality processes. Previous studies showed that Amazonian forests with high productivity have a higher mortality rate than forests with lower productivity. We introduce this relationship, which results in strongly improved modelling of biomass and of its spatial variations. We discuss the possibility of modifying the mortality modelling in ORCHIDEE, and the opportunity to improve forest productivity modelling through the integration of biomass measurements, in particular from remote sensing. © Author(s) 2010

Decarbonising the iron and steel sector for a 2 °C target using inherent waste streams

The decarbonisation of the iron and steel industry, contributing approximately 8% of current global anthropogenic CO2 emissions, is challenged by the persistently growing global steel demand and limitations of techno-economically feasible options for low-carbon steelmaking. Here we explore the inherent potential of recovering energy and re-using materials from waste streams, high-temperature slag, and re-investing the revenues for carbon capture and storage. In a pathway based on energy recovery and resource recycling of glassy blast furnace slag and crystalline steel slag, we show that a reduction of 28.5 ± 5.7% CO2 emissions to the sectoral 2 °C target requirements in the iron and steel industry could be realized in 2050 under strong decarbonization policy consistent with low warming targets. The technological schemes applied to engineer this high-potential pathway could generate a revenue of US$35 ± 16 and US$40 ± 18 billion globally in 2035 and 2050, respectively. If this revenue is used for carbon capture and storage implementation, equivalent CO2 emission to the 2 °C sectoral target requirements is expected to be reduced before 2050, without any external investments

Inverse modeling of CO2 sources and sinks using satellite data: a synthetic inter-comparison of measurement techniques and their performance as a function of space and time

Currently two polar orbiting satellite instruments measure CO₂ concentrations in the Earth's atmosphere, while other missions are planned for the coming years. In the future such instruments might become powerful tools for monitoring changes in the atmospheric CO₂ abundance and to improve our quantitative understanding of the leading processes controlling this. At the moment, however, we are still in an exploratory phase where first experiences are collected and promising new space-based measurement concepts are investigated. This study assesses the potential of some of these concepts to improve CO₂ source and sink estimates obtained from inverse modelling. For this purpose the performance of existing and planned satellite instruments is quantified by synthetic simulations of their ability to reduce the uncertainty of the current source and sink estimates in comparison with the existing ground-based network of sampling sites. Our high resolution inversion of sources and sinks (at 8°x10°) allows us to investigate the variation of instrument performance in space and time and at various temporal and spatial scales. The results of our synthetic tests clearly indicate that the satellite performance increases with increasing sensitivity of the instrument to CO₂ near the Earth's surface, favoring the near infra-red technique. Thermal infrared instruments, on the contrary, reach a better global coverage, because the performance in the near infrared is reduced over the oceans owing to a low surface albedo. Near infra-red sounders can compensate for this by measuring in sun-glint, which will allow accurate measurements over the oceans, at the cost, however, of a lower measurement density. Overall, the sun-glint pointing near infrared instrument is the most promising concept of those tested. We show that the ability of satellite instruments to resolve fluxes at smaller temporal and spatial scales is also related to surface sensitivity. All the satellite instruments performed relatively well over the continents resulting mainly from the larger prior flux uncertainties over land than over the oceans. In addition, the surface networks are rather sparse over land increasing the additional benefit of satellite measurements there. Globally, challenging satellite instrument precisions are needed to compete with the current surface network (about 1ppm for weekly and 8°x10° averaged SCIAMACHY columns). Regionally, however, these requirements relax considerably, increasing to 5ppm for SCIAMACHY over tropical continents. This points not only to an interesting research area using SCIAMACHY data, but also to the fact that satellite requirements should not be quantified by only a single number. The applicability of our synthetic results to real satellite instruments is limited by rather crude representations of instrument and data retrieval related uncertainties. This should receive high priority in future work

Response of methane emissions from wetlands to the Last Glacial Maximum and an idealized Dansgaard-Oeschger climate event: insights from two models of different complexity

The role of different sources and sinks of CH₄ in changes in atmospheric methane ([CH₄]) concentration during the last 100 000 yr is still not fully understood. In particular, the magnitude of the change in wetland CH₄ emissions at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) relative to the pre-industrial period (PI), as well as during abrupt climatic warming or Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O) events of the last glacial period, is largely unconstrained. In the present study, we aim to understand the uncertainties related to the parameterization of the wetland CH₄ emission models relevant to these time periods by using two wetland models of different complexity (SDGVM and ORCHIDEE). These models have been forced by identical climate fields from low-resolution coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (FAMOUS) simulations of these time periods. Both emission models simulate a large decrease in emissions during LGM in comparison to PI consistent with ice core observations and previous modelling studies. The global reduction is much larger in ORCHIDEE than in SDGVM (respectively −67 and −46%), and whilst the differences can be partially explained by different model sensitivities to temperature, the major reason for spatial differences between the models is the inclusion of freezing of soil water in ORCHIDEE and the resultant impact on methanogenesis substrate availability in boreal regions. Besides, a sensitivity test performed with ORCHIDEE in which the methanogenesis substrate sensitivity to the precipitations is modified to be more realistic gives a LGM reduction of −36%. The range of the global LGM decrease is still prone to uncertainty, and here we underline its sensitivity to different process parameterizations. Over the course of an idealized D–O warming, the magnitude of the change in wetland CH₄ emissions simulated by the two models at global scale is very similar at around 15 Tg yr⁻¹, but this is only around 25% of the ice-core measured changes in [CH₄]. The two models do show regional differences in emission sensitivity to climate with much larger magnitudes of northern and southern tropical anomalies in ORCHIDEE. However, the simulated northern and southern tropical anomalies partially compensate each other in both models limiting the net flux change. Future work may need to consider the inclusion of more detailed wetland processes (e.g. linked to permafrost or tropical floodplains), other non-wetland CH₄ sources or different patterns of D–O climate change in order to be able to reconcile emission estimates with the ice-core data for rapid CH₄ events